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At the time of publication of this article, the EUR / USD pair is traded near the mark of 1.2230, remaining in the bull market zone and maintaining positive dynamics above the key support levels 1.1920 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1990 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
Today the pair is growing for the third week in a row, but, as we noted above, its further growth may be difficult due to the intensifying talk in the market regarding the growing likelihood that the Fed's stimulus policy will soon begin to roll back.
In case of resumption of growth and after the breakdown of the local resistance level 1.2260, EUR / USD will head towards the upper border of the ascending channel on the weekly chart and the mark of 1.2450.
More distant growth targets are located at resistance levels 1.2500, 1.2580 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of the upward correction in the wave of the pair's decline from 1.3870, which began in May 2014, and the highs of 2018), 1.2600.
In the alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the support levels 1.2118 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.2090 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart), EUR / USD will resume its decline towards the key support levels 1.1990, 1.1920, and the breakdown of the support level 1.1600 (ЕМА200 and ЕМА144 on the weekly chart) will increase the risks of a resumption of the long-term bearish trend in EUR / USD.
The first signal for the implementation of this scenario will be a breakdown of the support level 1.2201 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Support levels: 1.2201, 1.2180, 1.2118, 1.2090, 1.2070, 1.2000, 1.1990, 1.1920, 1.1780, 1.1710, 1.1600
Resistance levels: 1.2260, 1.2300, 1.2340, 1.2450, 1.2580, 1.2600
Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.2190. Stop-Loss 1.2245. Take-Profit 1.2180, 1.2118, 1.2090, 1.2070, 1.2000, 1.1990, 1.1920, 1.1780, 1.1710, 1.1600
Buy Stop 1.2245. Stop-Loss 1.2190. Take-Profit 1.2260, 1.2300, 1.2340, 1.2450, 1.2580, 1.2600
