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Euro Zone Business Activity Progress
Recent survey results suggest that business operations in the Eurozone are on the verge of resuming growth in March, surpassing earlier predictions. Interestingly, the survey also pointed out that the previously rising inflationary pressures toned down this month.
The Uneven Trajectory of Recovery
However, this recovery paints a mosaic picture with disparate trends observed within the service and manufacturing sectors. A robust revival in service sector activities counterbalanced the pronounced downfall in the manufacturing field. A parallel distinction was also evident between the two economic powerhouses of the bloc - Germany and France.
PMI and Economic Highlights
S&P Global compiled the HCOB's initial composite PMI, which escalated to 49.9 this month from 49.2 in February. This indicates ten consecutive months of staying below the pivotal 50 score that differentiates growth from decline, although it surpassed Reuters poll's projection of 49.7. It appears that the Eurozone economy is merely 'getting by' in Q1, but there are early signs of improvement, noted Bert Colijn from ING.
Germany witnessed a modest easing of its economic downturn in March with service sector business activity nearing stabilisation. Conversely, France's downturn escalated as demand for its goods and services fell, and employment rates lowered.
Contemporary data from Britain, now outside the EU, suggests businesses have maintained their trajectory of recovery from recession. Yet, persisting price pressures could sustain the Bank of England's current stance on interest rates.
Inflationary Pressures and Monetary Policy
While the cost of operation and pricing in the Eurozone decreased this month but stayed high, with pricing hitting a four-month low point. This would likely be commended by the European Central Bank's policymakers who had maintained the borrowing costs at record highs earlier this month. They are tentatively preparing to reduce them later this year, anticipatedly kicking off the cuts from June, as per a Reuters poll.
Persistent high pricing pressures eliminate the possibility of a rate cut ahead of June. Although a cut in June is most likely from our perspective, there is a distinct possibility of an even later commencement of easing, stated Franziska Palmas from Capital Economics.
PMI and Sectoral Differences
A PMI pertaining to the bloc's dominant service industry dramatically ascended to a nine-month high of 51.1 from 50.2 in February, overtaking Reuters poll's prediction of 50.5. The demand for services has risen for the first time since June.
However, the manufacturing PMI plummeted to a three-month low of 45.7 from 46.5, disappointing all predictions in the Reuters poll which had anticipated growth to 47.0.
Those expecting recovery in the manufacturing sector in Q1 will have to concede to the seemingly inevitable downtrend, cautioned Cyrus de la Rubia, the chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank.
Suggestively, factory managers do not foresee an immediate improvement with the cutting of employment at the highest rate since the previous November, the survey revealed.
