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Since the beginning of this month, the AUD / USD pair has dropped sharply, having lost half of its October gains. The weakening of the AUD and the fall of the AUD / USD were facilitated by the decisions and statements made by the RBA on the near-term prospects for monetary policy, as well as the strengthening of the US dollar.
As a result, this month AUD / USD has dropped by 2% so far, although the local minimum was recorded much lower, near the 0.7276 mark. The pair bounced off this local low last Friday, when profit-taking in long positions on the US dollar began.
At the time of publication of this article, AUD / USD is traded in close proximity to a strong short-term resistance level 0.7369 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), a breakdown of which could provoke further growth towards resistance levels 0.7385 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart), 0.7391 (ЕМА200 at 4 -hour chart). But for now, this is still an upward correction.
Only a rise in the zone above the key long-term resistance level 0.7430 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) will indicate the resumption of the long-term bullish trend in AUD / USD.
Immediate growth targets after that will be located at resistance levels 0.7510 (Fibonacci level 50% retracement to the wave of the pair's decline from 0.9500 in July 2014 to 2020 lows near 0.5510) and near the local 3-month high of 0.7555, reached at the end of October.
Confirmed breakdown of the long-term resistance level 0.7730 (ЕМА200 on the monthly chart) is likely to complete the AUD / USD transition into the long-term bull market zone.
In an alternative scenario, the decline in AUD / USD will resume. The breakdown of the support levels 0.7340 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart), 0.7276 (local 5-week low) will indicate the transition of AUD / USD into the zone of the long-term bear market.
Support levels: 0.7340, 0.7276, 0.7175, 0.7115
Resistance levels: 0.7369, 0.7385, 0.7391, 0.7430, 0.7510, 0.7555, 0.7570, 0.7730
Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 0.7320. Stop-Loss 0.7380. Take-Profit 0.7300, 0.7276, 0.7200, 0.7175, 0.7115
Buy Stop 0.7380. Stop-Loss 0.7320. Take-Profit 0.7391, 0.7430, 0.7510, 0.7555, 0.7570, 0.7730
