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At the time of writing this article, the XAU/USD pair is traded near 1819.00, remaining in a long-term bull market and moving within an ascending channel on the weekly chart. Its upper limit is close to 1916.00 (local highs in 2021). This mark will be a reference in case of further growth of XAU/USD with intermediate targets at the resistance levels 1832.00, 1853.00, 1877.00.
Against the backdrop of the upcoming Fed meeting in March, investors' attention will be focused on the latest US inflation data. This week they will be published on Thursday (at 13:30 GMT). According to the forecast, the January consumer price index (in annual terms) will be 7.3% (up from the previous value of 7.0%), and the core consumer price index 5.9% (up from the previous value of 5.5%). The data again points to the acceleration of inflation in the US, which will put pressure on the Fed in favor of a more aggressive tightening of monetary policy. And the closer the March meeting of the US Federal Reserve, the stronger the volatility in the quotes of the dollar and gold will grow. In the meantime, long positions look preferable in the XAU/USD pair.
In an alternative scenario, and after a retest of the key long-term and psychologically important support level 1800.00, XAU/USD will head towards the lower border of a wide range passing through 1682.00 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement to the growth wave from December 2015 and 1050.00). A breakdown of the support levels 1640.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 1560.00 (50% Fibonacci level) will increase the risks of breaking the long-term bullish trend of XAU/USD.
Support levels: 1811.00, 1809.00, 1800.00, 1785.00, 1752.00, 1725.00, 1700.00, 1682.00, 1640.00, 1560.00
Resistance levels: 1823.00, 1832.00, 1853.00, 1877.00, 1900.00, 1916.00, 1963.00, 1976.00, 2000.00, 2010.00
Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1808.00. Stop Loss 1825.00. Take-Profit 1800.00, 1785.00, 1752.00, 1725.00, 1700.00, 1682.00, 1640.00, 1560.00
Buy Stop 1825.00. Stop Loss 1808.00. Take-Profit 1832.00, 1853.00, 1877.00, 1900.00, 1916.00, 1963.00, 1976.00, 2000.00, 2010.00
