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During the recent corrective growth (against the background of the weakening dollar), the EUR/USD pair managed to rise to the important short-term resistance level 1.1130 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). The upper limit of the descending channel on the daily chart also passes through this mark.
However, further growth of EUR/USD stalled, and the pair again turned to the decline, during which it is trying to break into the zone below the psychologically significant support level 1.1000.
Sooner or later, this will happen, in our opinion, and the pair will head inside the descending channels on the daily and weekly charts. Their lower borders are near 1.0700 (2020 lows). More distant downside targets are located at the support levels 1.0500, 1.0350 (2015 and 2017 lows, respectively).
In an alternative scenario, corrective growth will resume, and after the breakdown of the resistance levels 1.1130, 1.1175 (EMA50 on the daily chart), EUR/USD will head towards the key resistance level 1.1460 (EMA200 on the daily chart) with intermediate targets at the resistance levels 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6 % of upward correction in the wave of the pair's decline from the level 1.3870, which began in May 2014, to the level 1.0500), 1.1380 (local highs and ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
A breakdown of the long-term resistance level 1.1560 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) will return EUR/USD into the zone of the long-term bull market with the prospect of growth to the resistance level 1.1740 (EMA200 on the monthly chart).
Nevertheless, in the current situation against the backdrop of fundamental data, the situation in Ukraine and in our main scenario, short positions with entry into them from current levels or after the breakdown of the support level 1.1000 remain preferable.
Support levels: 1.1000, 1.0960, 1.0900, 1.0850, 1.0765, 1.0700, 1.0500, 1.0350
Resistance levels: 1.1020, 1.1130, 1.1175, 1.1235, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1380, 1.1460, 1.1500, 1.1560, 1.1740, 1.1780
Trading Recommendations
Sell by market. Sell Stop 1.0960. Stop Loss 1.1030. Take-Profit 1.0900, 1.0850, 1.0765, 1.0700, 1.0500, 1.0350
Buy Stop 1.1030. Stop Loss 1.0960. Take-Profit 1.1100, 1.1130, 1.1175, 1.1235, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1380, 1.1460, 1.1500, 1.1560, 1.1740, 1.1780
